Global Conflicts Threaten Climate Focus Ahead of Cop30, Warns UN Summit Chief

With just four months left until Cop30, Ana Toni, CEO of the upcoming UN climate summit in Brazil, has raised alarm over the global community’s sluggish response to the escalating climate crisis. Toni described climate change as “our biggest war” and cautioned that ongoing geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions are distracting nations from urgent climate commitments.

Fewer than 30 of the nearly 200 countries expected to attend the summit in Belém have submitted updated national plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, a requirement under the 2015 Paris Agreement. These nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are critical to preventing catastrophic global warming, but progress remains sluggish. Talks in Bonn aimed at laying the groundwork for Cop30 recently ended in deadlock, with no clear texts agreed upon and frequent procedural delays.

The stakes are higher than ever. For the first time, global land temperatures have consistently breached the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels—once considered a red line. Experts warn that the world may already be nearing irreversible climate “tipping points.”

Toni and other negotiators point to deliberate stalling by some fossil fuel-producing countries and warn that global leaders’ attention is being diverted by military conflicts and economic woes. “Spending more on defence means spending less on climate,” said Michai Robertson from the Alliance of Small Island States, echoing fears that the voices of vulnerable nations may be drowned out.

While China’s rapid growth in renewable energy has been promising, its new wave of coal plant approvals has sparked concern. The EU, meanwhile, is struggling to finalize its 2040 climate goals amid internal disagreements. India and other emerging economies have yet to update their NDCs.

Discussions at Cop30 will also revolve around finance. Developing countries need robust support—an estimated $1.3 trillion annually by 2035—to implement mitigation measures and adapt to worsening climate impacts. However, pledges made at Cop29 are far from secure, with low engagement from major development banks and reduced contributions from key donors like the US.

Another major concern is the lack of momentum on fossil fuel phase-out commitments. After the landmark agreement at Cop28 to “transition away from fossil fuels,” attempts to expand on that at Bonn were reportedly sidelined, with Brazil reluctant to reopen the debate at Cop30.

Despite these hurdles, Brazil is pushing for a more inclusive and action-driven summit, with a focus on indigenous voices, environmental justice, and thematic priorities like food, water, and nature. Still, Toni admits the most critical outcomes—updated and ambitious NDCs—will be shaped not at the summit, but in the political capitals of the world long before it begins.

“What we will have at Cop30 is a reflection of national politics more than anything,” she said. “It is a collective responsibility.”