India is likely to receive below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday, revising its earlier forecast downward and warning of growing risks to agriculture, water resources and public health amid emerging El Nino conditions.
The IMD now expects monsoon rainfall during the June-September season to be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±4%. In April, the weather office had projected rainfall at 92% of the LPA.
The LPA for the southwest monsoon, calculated using rainfall data from 1971 to 2020, stands at 87 cm.
According to IMD’s forecast probabilities, there is a 60% chance of a “deficient” monsoon, defined as rainfall below 90% of the LPA. There is a 24% probability of “below normal” rainfall between 90% and 95% of the LPA, a 14% chance of “normal” rainfall, a 2% probability of “above normal” rainfall, and virtually no chance of an “excess” monsoon this season.
“The forecast probability is not the only factor. We have issued the 90% of LPA forecast based on the total quantity of rainfall that we are likely to receive during the season. So we look at dynamic factors also,” said M Ravichandran, secretary in the ministry of earth sciences.
The revised outlook is particularly worrying for the agriculture sector because rainfall over the monsoon core zone (MCZ) — which includes most of India’s rain-fed agricultural regions — is also expected to remain below normal at under 94% of the LPA.
Regionally, IMD said Northeast India is likely to receive normal rainfall, while Central India, South Peninsular India and Northwest India are expected to witness below-normal rainfall.
Most parts of the country are likely to experience below-normal seasonal rainfall between June and September, except for some areas in Northwest and Northeast India, eastern parts of the southern peninsula, adjoining east-central India and isolated pockets of East India, where rainfall may remain normal to above normal.
IMD warned that below-normal rainfall could trigger multiple challenges, including pressure on agriculture, water availability, hydropower generation and ecosystem sustainability. It may also increase the risks of drought, heat stress and drinking water shortages.
“To minimize these impacts, strategies can include efficient water resource management, promotion of water conservation practices, contingency planning for agriculture, strengthening drought monitoring and use of early warning services of IMD, and enhancing preparedness measures in sectors that are particularly vulnerable to rainfall deficits,” the weather office said.
The latest forecast also indicates that June rainfall itself is likely to remain below normal at under 92% of the LPA, contrary to earlier expectations that early monsoon rains would remain unaffected by the approaching El Nino.
“We can expect weak El Nino conditions to set in as early as June,” Ravichandran said.
IMD noted that neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the equatorial Pacific are gradually transitioning towards El Nino conditions, which are historically associated with weaker monsoons and harsher summers in India.
At the same time, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail and are expected to continue during the monsoon season.
The weather office also indicated that the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala may be delayed. Extended-range forecasts show largely dry conditions over Kerala between May 28 and June 4, with only marginal improvement expected between June 4 and June 11. Rainfall activity is expected to strengthen only after June 11.
Two weather systems are currently hampering the monsoon’s advance — a typhoon over the West Pacific that is drawing moisture away from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, and a cyclonic circulation over the Lakshadweep region that is limiting rainfall over Kerala.
The monsoon normally arrives in Kerala around June 1. Earlier this month, IMD had predicted an early onset around May 26, with an error margin of ±4 days.
“We are expecting that monsoon will gradually advance to more parts of Arabian Sea and extreme Peninsular India during next one week. Most of the rainfall now is happening over the ocean and not on the mainland. So we have not declared monsoon onset over Kerala yet,” Ravichandran said.
The southwest monsoon remains critical for India’s economy because nearly half of the country’s net-sown agricultural land still lacks irrigation facilities. Seasonal rains also replenish reservoirs that support drinking water supply, hydropower generation and industrial operations.
This year’s monsoon assumes even greater significance as farmers face concerns over possible fertiliser supply disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict in West Asia.
Alongside concerns over rainfall, IMD also warned of an unusually hot June.
Above-normal heatwave days are expected across Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, along with isolated parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Some regions could witness five to six heatwave days during the month.
“Normally three heatwave days are expected in these regions. But we are expecting two to three additional heatwave days in June,” said M Mohapatra, director general of IMD.
The weather office warned that prolonged heatwave conditions could significantly impact public health, water availability, electricity demand and essential services.
Vulnerable populations — including the elderly, children, outdoor workers and people with existing health conditions — remain at particular risk from prolonged exposure to extreme temperatures.
Persistent heat may also strain infrastructure and resource management systems across states.
IMD said state governments and district administrations have been advised to strengthen preparedness measures, including ensuring the availability of cooling shelters, safe drinking water and emergency health services.
The weather office added that it will continue issuing weekly and extended-range forecasts, along with impact-based warnings, to help authorities respond effectively to both heatwave conditions and rainfall deficits.
Comments are closed.