Europe’s extreme heatwave made far more likely by climate change, scientists reveal

Europe is facing one of its most extreme heatwaves on record, and scientists say they have found some of the clearest evidence yet that climate change played a major role in driving the crisis.

Researchers from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group said the heatwave was made significantly more likely and intense because of global warming. Unlike previous studies that often take months, scientists reached their conclusion within days of analysing the event.

A powerful high-pressure system, known as a “heat dome,” trapped extreme heat across Western and Central Europe during the final weeks of June. The system pulled hot air from North Africa and held it over countries including France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom.

Temperatures rose between 5°C and 12°C above normal levels in several regions, with multiple countries recording new heat records.

France recorded a new June temperature record of 44.3°C, while the UK experienced consecutive red heat warnings as southern England faced extreme temperatures. The country broke its June heat record three times in one day before Gosport reached 36.1°C.

Germany, Denmark and the Czech Republic also recorded their hottest days ever, with Germany breaking its national temperature record twice within two days. Spain’s Cantabria region reached 43.7°C, setting a new all-time record.

Scientists say climate change intensified the heat

The WWA study found that the extreme daytime temperatures and unusually warm nights during the heatwave would have been almost impossible under the climate conditions of the 1970s.

Researchers said the same weather pattern would have produced temperatures around 3.5°C lower about 50 years ago. Compared with two decades ago, an event of this scale is now estimated to be around 200 times more likely.

The researchers also examined whether El Niño, the Pacific climate pattern, contributed to the heatwave. They concluded that it was not the main factor, with climate change identified as the key driver.

Rising heat stress across Europe

Scientists looked beyond air temperature and analysed “heat stress”, which reflects how hot conditions feel to the human body by combining temperature and humidity.

The study examined 854 cities across 30 European countries and found that nearly half are experiencing record or near-record levels of heat stress. Cities across the Czech Republic, Lithuania and Luxembourg recorded unprecedented heat stress levels.

Researchers said Europe’s hottest days are warming about three times faster than the global average, while nighttime temperatures are increasing at roughly twice the global rate.

Experts warned that hotter nights are especially dangerous because they prevent the human body from recovering after extreme daytime heat.

Heatwave causes deaths and disruption

Extreme heat has already had a deadly impact across Europe. More than 60,000 heat-related deaths were linked to high temperatures in 2022, while another 47,000 deaths were recorded in 2023.

Authorities are still assessing the impact of the latest heatwave, but experts fear the death toll could be significant. Several heat-related deaths have been reported, along with accidents linked to people trying to escape the heat.

The extreme temperatures also disrupted infrastructure. Nuclear power plants in countries including France, Switzerland and Hungary reduced operations because river temperatures became too high for safe cooling.

In Germany, parts of the Autobahn were damaged by heat, while rail operators warned of possible disruptions.

Scientists said elderly people living alone, those with chronic illnesses, people facing financial hardship, homeless communities and migrants remain among the most vulnerable during extreme heat events.