Climate Models May Underestimate Heat Rise in India’s Smaller Cities by Up to 2°C: Study
Climate models may be significantly underestimating how much hotter India’s non-metropolitan cities could become compared to surrounding rural areas, according to a study published on February 4, 2026.
Researchers from the University of East Anglia (UEA), UK, found that urban centres in India and other tropical and sub-tropical regions could experience between 0.5°C and 2°C more warming than currently projected, due to the urban heat island effect.
The study, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, analysed 104 medium-sized cities under a 2°C global warming scenario — the emissions pathway the world is currently following.
Rather than focusing on average regional warming, the researchers examined how much faster cities are heating up compared to their surrounding countryside.
Patiala Emerges as Extreme Outlier
One of the most striking findings involved Patiala in Punjab, which emerged as an extreme outlier. The study found that land surface temperatures in the city could rise at nearly double the rate projected by global climate models when compared with nearby rural areas.
This means that if climate models predict a 2°C rise in the region, Patiala could experience an actual increase of around 4°C once urban effects are considered. Karur in Pakistan was the only other city to show a similar pattern.
Such additional warming could sharply increase risks of heatstroke, strain water resources, and raise public spending on cooling and healthcare, the researchers warned.
Indian Cities Warming Faster Than Surroundings
The study examined 18 Indian cities and found that all of them are warming faster than their rural surroundings.
On average, Indian cities are expected to experience about 45% more warming than suggested by Earth System Models (ESMs). This increases projected urban warming from around 2.2°C to nearly 2.6–2.7°C when city-specific factors are included.
The urban heat island effect — where cities retain more heat due to concrete surfaces, limited vegetation, and reduced moisture — plays a key role in this trend.
Among large cities, Jalandhar in India, Fuyang in China, and Kirkuk in Iraq showed the biggest increases, with 0.7–0.8°C additional warming compared to rural areas.
Other cities, including Asyut in Egypt and Shangqiu in China, were found to experience even higher excess warming of 1.5–2°C — nearly double that of their hinterlands.
Why Climate Models Miss Urban Warming
The researchers said the discrepancy does not mean climate models are wrong about regional warming. Instead, it reflects limitations in model resolution.
Most climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) operate at a coarse scale, effectively blending cities into surrounding landscapes. This masks important differences in how urban and rural areas respond to climate change.
To overcome this, the team combined satellite land-surface temperature data from 2002 to 2020 with machine-learning techniques. The model analysed how factors such as vegetation, soil moisture and surface reflectivity (albedo) influence urban heat today, and projected how these would change in a warmer world.
Vegetation Drives the Growing Heat Gap
The study found that increased vegetation in rural areas is the main driver widening the temperature gap between cities and villages.
In northern India, climate models predict higher moisture levels and improved vegetation growth in rural regions. These areas cool efficiently through evapotranspiration — the release of water vapour from plants.
Cities, dominated by concrete and asphalt and lacking natural drainage, cannot benefit from this cooling effect. As a result, rural areas warm more slowly, while urban temperatures rise faster.
This widens the urban–rural heat gap over time.
Rising Urban Heat Stress
“Urban heat stress under climate change is an increasing concern,” said co-author Manoj Joshi of UEA’s Climatic Research Unit.
“Many cities in the tropics and subtropics are already warmer than their surroundings. Our results suggest that several cities in northern India and north-east China could warm by around 3°C, even when models project only 1.5–2°C for nearby regions,” he said.
The researchers warned that without targeted urban planning, increased greenery, and heat-resilient infrastructure, millions in smaller and mid-sized cities could face heightened climate risks in coming decades.
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