El Niño 2026 could be strongest in 150 years, scientists warn; 2027 may become hottest year on record

Climate scientists are warning that a powerful El Niño expected to develop in 2026 could become the strongest in more than 150 years, raising fears that 2027 may surpass all previous global temperature records.

According to climate experts, the emerging El Niño has the potential to significantly amplify global warming by transferring vast amounts of heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere. Combined with the long-term effects of human-driven climate change, the phenomenon could push global temperatures to unprecedented levels.

Why is El Niño so important?

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It disrupts weather systems across the globe, influencing rainfall, droughts, heatwaves, storms and tropical cyclone activity.

Scientists say that while El Niño itself is a natural cycle, today’s warmer planet means each strong event has the potential to produce more extreme weather than in the past.

Could 2027 become the hottest year on record?

Climate models suggest the warming impact of El Niño typically peaks several months after the event develops. If the projected 2026 event strengthens as expected, its maximum influence could be felt throughout 2027, making it a strong contender to become the hottest year ever recorded.

Researchers caution that the combination of greenhouse gas emissions and an exceptionally strong El Niño could lead to prolonged heatwaves, record-breaking land and ocean temperatures, and increased risks of wildfires across several regions.

Global weather impacts

A major El Niño often reshapes weather patterns worldwide. Scientists warn it could trigger:

• More intense and prolonged heatwaves across Asia, Europe and North America.
• Severe drought conditions in parts of Australia, Southeast Asia and southern Africa.
• Increased flooding in parts of South America and East Africa.
• Coral bleaching caused by unusually warm ocean temperatures.
• Greater stress on agriculture, food production and water resources.

What could it mean for India?

For India, El Niño is closely linked to the southwest monsoon. Strong El Niño years have historically been associated with below-normal rainfall, increasing the risk of drought, water shortages and reduced crop yields.

Meteorologists caution that while El Niño influences the monsoon, it is not the only factor determining rainfall. Conditions in the Indian Ocean and other climate systems also play an important role.

Climate change adding to the risk

Scientists stress that El Niño is not the primary cause of rising global temperatures. Instead, it acts as a temporary accelerator on top of the persistent warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions.

With the world’s oceans already recording exceptionally high temperatures in recent years, experts say another extremely strong El Niño could push the climate system into uncharted territory.

While forecasts will continue to evolve over the coming months, researchers say governments and communities should prepare for a higher likelihood of extreme heat, weather disruptions and climate-related disasters if the projected 2026 El Niño develops as expected.