UN Report Projects 2.6°C Global Warming By 2100 Despite Climate Commitments

The world is on course for a temperature rise of 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, even if countries fulfil their existing climate commitments, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned in its latest Emissions Gap Report released on Wednesday.

The report highlights a widening gap between governments’ climate pledges and the action needed to limit global warming under the 2015 Paris Agreement. If countries continue with their current policies, global temperatures could rise by as much as 2.8°C by 2100, significantly exceeding the internationally agreed climate targets.

The warning comes ahead of the COP31 climate summit, scheduled to take place in Antalya, Turkey, from November 9 to 20, where governments are expected to face renewed pressure to strengthen their emissions-reduction commitments.

Paris Agreement Targets Increasingly Out Of Reach

The Paris Agreement aims to keep the rise in global average temperatures well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.

However, UNEP’s latest assessment indicates that existing national climate pledges remain insufficient to achieve either target. The report says the world can no longer avoid temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C threshold, making rapid emissions reductions essential to limit the extent and duration of that overshoot.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the consequences of rising temperatures were already being felt through deadly floods, intense heatwaves, wildfires, loss of life and economic disruption.

He also highlighted the unequal impact of climate change, noting that vulnerable communities and countries that have contributed relatively little to global emissions are often among the worst affected.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Remain Near Record Levels

According to the report, global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 remained broadly comparable with the record levels recorded in 2024. Emissions from burning coal, oil and natural gas — the principal drivers of human-induced climate change — increased slightly during the year.

UNEP said the gap between existing climate commitments and the reductions required to meet global temperature goals remains substantial.

Under current policies, global warming is projected to reach 2.8°C by 2100. Even full implementation of countries’ latest climate pledges would limit the projected rise only to around 2.6°C.

The findings underline the need for governments to move beyond long-term announcements and introduce policies that deliver immediate and sustained cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

US Emissions Rise While India, EU Record Declines

The report’s preliminary estimates for 2025 show that emissions increased in the United States, China and Indonesia, while India, Russia and the European Union recorded declines among the world’s six largest emitters.

The United States recorded an increase of approximately 133 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, the largest rise among the countries assessed. Higher electricity demand and a rebound in coal-fired power generation contributed to the increase.

UNEP report co-author Anne Olhoff said the latest warming projections were worse than those in the previous year’s report, partly because of the United States’ formal withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions.

The G20 group of major economies accounts for roughly three-quarters of global greenhouse gas emissions, making action by its members particularly important to the global climate response.

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen stressed that no country was immune to climate change, with its effects being felt across the world.

What Will It Take To Limit Global Warming?

Despite the grim projections, UNEP’s report identifies a pathway to limit the extent of warming and potentially bring temperatures back to 1.5°C by 2100.

In the report’s lowest-overshoot scenario, global warming would peak at approximately 1.7°C to 1.8°C around mid-century before declining towards 1.5°C by the end of the century. The scenario carries about a 50% chance of returning temperatures to that level by 2100.

Achieving this outcome would require immediate and deep emissions reductions, alongside large-scale removal and permanent storage of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

UNEP’s assessment says global greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall by 18% from 2025 levels by 2030 and 45% by 2035 to support this pathway. Current national plans fall considerably short of those reductions.

Experts have called for governments to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, expand clean electricity, improve energy efficiency and strengthen measures to protect forests and other carbon-absorbing ecosystems.

COP31 To Face Renewed Pressure For Climate Action

The findings are expected to intensify discussions at COP31, where countries will face calls to align their climate policies with the scale of emissions reductions identified by scientists.

Climate-vulnerable developing countries have repeatedly criticised major emitters for failing to deliver sufficient action and support. The gap between promised reductions and actual progress is likely to remain a central issue at the summit.

Although the 1.5°C goal is increasingly difficult to achieve without temporarily exceeding it, UNEP has stressed that further action can still reduce the severity of climate impacts.

The report’s central message is that every fraction of a degree matters. Faster emissions cuts could limit the extent of global warming, reduce the risks of extreme weather and improve the prospects of bringing temperatures back down later this century.